Portfolio Income Modeler
They are not guarantees of future performance and do not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Please review the Investment Disclaimer
Scenario Settings
Asset Class Assumptions (editable)
| Bucket | Asset Class | Allocation % | Expected Annual Growth % | Expected Annual Yield % | Value | Action |
|---|
Model monthly income sustainability using dividend yield assumptions, price CAGR, inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and configurable rebalance cadence.
Use preset allocations or edit the asset type rows to test custom allocation, growth, and yield assumptions.
Learn more about assumptions and methodology: How ML Stats Calculates Portfolio Projections
Initial Holdings
| Bucket | Asset Class | Target % | Value | Annual Growth % | Annual Yield % |
|---|
Final Holdings
| Bucket | Asset Class | Target % | Value | Annual Growth % | Annual Yield % |
|---|
Annual Details
Monthly Details
Portfolio Value
Monte Carlo Analysis
Monte Carlo uses your current portfolio weights, growth assumptions, yield assumptions, inflation input, withdrawal strategy, DRIP, and rebalance settings. Each run samples a plausible set of annual assumptions and replays the same monthly engine.
Disclosures: All projections, backtests, and Monte Carlo simulations generated by this tool are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future financial outcomes. This software functions strictly as an educational calculator using historical market averages. It does not provide personalized investment advice or asset recommendations.
Monte Carlo Results
Funded Income measures scenarios without income shortfalls. Principal Preservation also requires ending value to remain at or above 80% of starting principal.
Backtest
Disclosures: All projections, backtests, and Monte Carlo simulations generated by this tool are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future financial outcomes. This software functions strictly as an educational calculator using historical market averages. It does not provide personalized investment advice or asset recommendations.
Backtest Results
Backtest Portfolio Value
Backtest Monthly Details
About The Calculator Tools
This tab summarizes how Portfolio Modeler and Retirement Calculator simulate outcomes and how withdrawals are prioritized.
Portfolio Modeler (single-portfolio simulation)
- Runs month-by-month deterministic projection using growth and dividend assumptions by holding.
- Standard withdrawal mode applies growth, adds dividends, then funds income from cash and, if needed, sells holdings by your selected sale strategy.
- Three Bucket mode sizes Bucket 1 from the selected years of income, sizes Bucket 2 from the selected years of income, and places the remaining portfolio value in Bucket 3.
- In Three Bucket mode, spending is funded from dividends and cash first, then Bucket 1, then Bucket 2, then Bucket 3 only as a last resort. Sales within an active bucket use the selected sale order.
- Scheduled replenishment uses the rebalance cadence: Bucket 1 is refilled from Bucket 2 first, and Bucket 2 can be refilled from Bucket 3 only when Bucket 3 had positive growth for the month.
- Supports DRIP and scheduled rebalancing (monthly, quarterly, yearly, or never).
- Monte Carlo analysis reuses the same monthly engine while sampling inflation, growth, yield assumptions, and the selected withdrawal mode across repeated scenarios.
Monte Carlo Analysis
Monte Carlo analysis runs many versions of the same scenario while randomly varying inflation, portfolio growth, and dividend yield around the assumptions entered in the tool. Lower volatility settings create narrower outcome ranges; higher settings stress-test the scenario against wider market and inflation variation.
| Parameter | Conservative | Typical | Aggressive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Volatility | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Portfolio Growth Volatility | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Dividend Yield Volatility | 2% | 5% | 8% |
Retirement Calculator (multi-account retirement simulation)
- Projects monthly expenses with inflation, then compares against income sources and account withdrawals.
- Withdrawal order is cash accounts (by priority, if draw enabled), then Taxable Brokerage, then 401k/IRA, then Roth IRA.
- Within an investment account, account cash is used first, then holdings are sold using that account's withdrawal strategy.
- Age gating uses each account's withdrawal start age for retirement-account withdrawal access.
- A fixed IRS-style 10% early withdrawal penalty is not currently auto-applied in the model.
For full methodology details, assumptions, and limitations, see: How ML Stats Calculates Portfolio Modeler & Retirement Calculator
Portfolio Modeler-specific methodology is also available here: How ML Stats Calculates Portfolio Projections
Please also review the Investment Disclaimer before relying on outputs.
Run a Scenario
Static Projection
Monte Carlo Analysis
Preservation % --
Ending Value --
Historical BackTest
Results are hypothetical estimates based on your inputs and assumptions. They are not guarantees of future performance.